Sudtirol vs Ascoli prediction
Italy Serie B · Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 WAT
- Model called X2 ✓ (draw or away win): called it
- Market called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Ascoli to win as the most likely result (42%). It gives Sudtirol 26% at home, a draw 33% and Ascoli 42%, so its call is X2: Ascoli to win or draw. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 35% / 30% / 34%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sudtirol and 1.2 for Ascoli; the single most likely score is 1-1. Careful: there is little recent data on Ascoli, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Sudtirol
Attack 14th of 20, defence 9th of 20 in the league.
- W 4-1 at Arezzo 2026-09-20
- D 1-1 v Modena 2026-09-12
- W 2-0 v Catanzaro 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 at Benevento 2026-08-30
- W 1-0 v Virtus Entella 2026-08-22
Ascoli
Attack 7th of 20, defence 1st of 20 in the league.
- W 3-1 v Avellino 2026-09-19
- L 0-1 at Padova 2026-09-12
- W 1-0 v Benevento 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 v Carrarese 2026-08-29
- W 2-1 at Verona 2026-08-23
From 811 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie B games on Sat 10 Oct
- Benevento vs Cesena · FT 2–0
- Empoli vs Palermo · FT 2–4
- Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia · FT 1–1
- Vicenza vs Pisa · FT 0–3
- Arezzo vs Cremonese · FT 0–0