Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction
Spain La Liga · Saturday 10 October 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Real Madrid to win as the most likely result (64%). It gives Real Madrid 64% at home, a draw 19% and Villarreal 17%, so its call is 1: Real Madrid to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 74% / 15% / 11%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.4 for Real Madrid and 1.2 for Villarreal; the single most likely score is 2-1.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Real Madrid
Attack 2nd of 20, defence 2nd of 20 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Ath Madrid 2026-09-20
- W 3-2 at Elche 2026-09-15
- W 4-1 v Vallecano 2026-09-12
- L 0-1 at Betis 2026-09-04
- W 4-0 v Malaga 2026-08-30
Villarreal
Attack 3rd of 20, defence 11th of 20 in the league.
- W 3-1 v Levante 2026-09-20
- W 3-1 at Malaga 2026-09-17
- L 1-2 v Betis 2026-09-14
- L 2-3 v La Coruna 2026-09-05
- L 0-1 at Alaves 2026-08-28
From 830 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain La Liga games on Sat 10 Oct
- Alaves vs Ath Madrid · FT 1–2
- Barcelona vs Getafe · FT 3–0