Napoli vs Frosinone prediction
Italy Serie A · Saturday 10 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Frosinone to win as the most likely result (41%). It gives Napoli 30% at home, a draw 29% and Frosinone 41%, so its call is 2: Frosinone to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 63% / 20% / 17%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.0 for Napoli and 1.2 for Frosinone; the single most likely score is 0-1. Careful: there is little recent data on Frosinone, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Napoli
Attack 7th of 20, defence 3rd of 20 in the league.
- D 1-1 at Fiorentina 2026-09-20
- W 1-0 v Bologna 2026-09-13
- L 2-3 at Inter 2026-09-05
- L 1-2 v Como 2026-08-30
- W 2-0 at Genoa 2026-08-22
Frosinone
Attack 2nd of 20, defence 1st of 20 in the league.
- W 2-0 v Como 2026-09-20
- D 1-1 at Genoa 2026-09-12
- W 3-2 v Venezia 2026-09-06
- W 3-0 at Fiorentina 2026-08-29
- L 0-1 v Juventus 2026-08-23
From 810 league matches since 2024-08-17, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie A games on Sat 10 Oct
- Genoa vs Fiorentina · FT 2–1
- Inter vs Parma · FT 3–0