Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction
Italy Serie A · Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 WAT
Full timeGenoa 2–1 FiorentinaResult 1
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
GenoaDrawFiorentina
Model 12 ✓
32%27%40%
Market 2 ✗
30%29%41%
Brit Predictor's model rates Fiorentina to win as the most likely result (40%). It gives Genoa 32% at home, a draw 27% and Fiorentina 40%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 30% / 29% / 41%, a call of 2. Expected goals are 1.1 for Genoa and 1.3 for Fiorentina; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Expected goals1.1 – 1.3
Most likely score1-1
Over 2.5 goals44%
Both teams score50%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Genoa
Attack 16th of 20, defence 14th of 20 in the league.
LDLLL
- L 1-2 at Parma 2026-09-20
- D 1-1 v Frosinone 2026-09-12
- L 1-4 v Como 2026-09-04
- L 0-1 at Lazio 2026-08-30
- L 0-2 v Napoli 2026-08-22
Fiorentina
Attack 12th of 20, defence 13th of 20 in the league.
DWLLL
- D 1-1 v Napoli 2026-09-20
- W 4-2 at Venezia 2026-09-11
- L 1-2 v Torino 2026-09-05
- L 0-3 v Frosinone 2026-08-29
- L 0-4 at Roma 2026-08-24
From 810 league matches since 2024-08-17, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie A games on Sat 10 Oct
- Inter vs Parma · FT 3–0
- Napoli vs Frosinone · FT 3–0