Ajax vs Nijmegen prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Saturday 10 October 2026, 21:00 WAT
Full timeAjax 1–1 NijmegenResult X
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
AjaxDrawNijmegen
Model 1 ✗
58%22%20%
Market 1 ✗
74%15%12%
Brit Predictor's model rates Ajax to win as the most likely result (58%). It gives Ajax 58% at home, a draw 22% and Nijmegen 20%, so its call is 1: Ajax to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 74% / 15% / 12%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.2 for Ajax and 1.2 for Nijmegen; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Expected goals2.2 – 1.2
Most likely score1-1
Over 2.5 goals67%
Both teams score64%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Ajax
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
DWWLW
- D 2-2 v Excelsior 2026-09-19
- W 5-1 v Willem II 2026-09-15
- W 5-1 at For Sittard 2026-09-12
- L 1-3 v PSV Eindhoven 2026-09-05
- W 4-0 at Telstar 2026-08-30
Nijmegen
Attack 4th of 18, defence 9th of 18 in the league.
DLDLW
- D 1-1 v Go Ahead Eagles 2026-09-20
- L 0-3 at Cambuur 2026-09-12
- D 2-2 v Excelsior 2026-09-08
- L 1-3 v Feyenoord 2026-09-05
- W 3-1 at Zwolle 2026-08-29
From 676 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Netherlands Eredivisie games on Sat 10 Oct
- Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam · FT 3–3
- Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar · FT 2–0
- For Sittard vs Twente · FT 1–1