Monza vs Sassuolo prediction
Italy Serie A · Friday 18 September 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Sassuolo to win as the most likely result (57%). It gives Monza 21% at home, a draw 22% and Sassuolo 57%, so its call is 2: Sassuolo to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 34% / 28% / 38%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.1 for Monza and 1.9 for Sassuolo; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 58%. Careful: there is little recent data on Monza, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Monza
Attack 17th of 20, defence 20th of 20 in the league.
- L 2-3 at Lecce 2026-09-13
- D 1-1 at Parma 2026-09-06
- L 2-3 v Udinese 2026-08-29
- L 1-4 at Inter 2026-08-22
- L 0-2 at Milan 2025-05-24
Sassuolo
Attack 8th of 20, defence 15th of 20 in the league.
- W 3-2 v Juventus 2026-09-13
- D 2-2 at Bologna 2026-09-06
- W 2-1 v Torino 2026-08-29
- L 1-2 at Atalanta 2026-08-23
- L 0-1 at Parma 2026-05-24
From 800 league matches since 2024-08-17, recent games weighted more.