Ajax vs Willem II prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Tuesday 15 September 2026, 20:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Ajax to win as the most likely result (77%). It gives Ajax 77% at home, a draw 16% and Willem II 7%, so its call is 1: Ajax to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 89% / 7% / 3%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.6 for Ajax and 0.7 for Willem II; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 64%. Careful: there is little recent data on Willem II, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Ajax
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
- W 5-1 at For Sittard 2026-09-12
- L 1-3 v PSV Eindhoven 2026-09-05
- W 4-0 at Telstar 2026-08-30
- D 2-2 v Heerenveen 2026-08-16
- W 2-0 at Zwolle 2026-08-09
Willem II
Attack 18th of 18, defence 15th of 18 in the league.
- D 1-1 at AZ Alkmaar 2026-09-11
- L 0-3 v Excelsior 2026-09-05
- D 2-2 v Heerenveen 2026-08-30
- L 1-4 v Nijmegen 2026-08-15
- L 1-4 at Go Ahead Eagles 2026-08-08
From 665 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.