Red Star vs Metz prediction
France Ligue 2 · Monday 14 September 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Metz to win as the most likely result (45%). It gives Red Star 29% at home, a draw 26% and Metz 45%, so its call is 2: Metz to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 40% / 28% / 33%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.1 for Red Star and 1.5 for Metz; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 52%. Careful: there is little recent data on Metz, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Red Star
Attack 9th of 18, defence 10th of 18 in the league.
- W 2-1 at Laval 2026-09-04
- L 1-4 v Reims 2026-08-29
- D 1-1 at Boulogne 2026-08-21
- D 0-0 v Sochaux 2026-08-14
- W 1-0 at Nantes 2026-08-08
Metz
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 3rd of 18 in the league.
- W 4-1 v Rodez 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 at Annecy 2026-08-29
- D 1-1 v Laval 2026-08-22
- D 0-0 at Grenoble 2026-08-14
- W 2-1 v Guingamp 2026-08-08
From 664 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.