Leeds vs Newcastle prediction
England Premier League · Monday 14 September 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Leeds to win as the most likely result (36%). It gives Leeds 36% at home, a draw 29% and Newcastle 35%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 41% / 27% / 32%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.4 for Leeds and 1.4 for Newcastle; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 51%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Leeds
Attack 13th of 20, defence 8th of 20 in the league.
- D 1-1 at Brighton 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 v Brentford 2026-08-30
- W 1-0 at Nott'm Forest 2026-08-22
- L 0-3 at West Ham 2026-05-24
- W 1-0 v Brighton 2026-05-17
Newcastle
Attack 7th of 20, defence 15th of 20 in the league.
- D 2-2 v Bournemouth 2026-09-05
- W 2-0 at Tottenham 2026-08-29
- D 2-2 v Liverpool 2026-08-23
- L 0-2 at Fulham 2026-05-24
- W 3-1 v West Ham 2026-05-17
From 799 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.