Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction
Italy Serie A · Friday 11 September 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Fiorentina to win as the most likely result (47%). It gives Venezia 27% at home, a draw 27% and Fiorentina 47%, so its call is 2: Fiorentina to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 34% / 28% / 39%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.0 for Venezia and 1.4 for Fiorentina; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 56%. Careful: there is little recent data on Venezia, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Venezia
Attack 18th of 20, defence 19th of 20 in the league.
- L 2-3 at Frosinone 2026-09-06
- L 0-2 at Milan 2026-08-28
- L 0-2 v Lecce 2026-08-23
- L 2-3 v Juventus 2025-05-25
- L 0-3 at Cagliari 2025-05-18
Fiorentina
Attack 13th of 20, defence 14th of 20 in the league.
- L 1-2 v Torino 2026-09-05
- L 0-3 v Frosinone 2026-08-29
- L 0-4 at Roma 2026-08-24
- D 1-1 v Atalanta 2026-05-22
- W 2-0 at Juventus 2026-05-17
From 790 league matches since 2024-08-17, recent games weighted more.