Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 prediction
Germany Bundesliga · Friday 11 September 2026, 20:30 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Schalke 04 to win as the most likely result (43%). It gives Union Berlin 28% at home, a draw 28% and Schalke 04 43%, so its call is 2: Schalke 04 to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 41% / 27% / 31%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.1 for Union Berlin and 1.4 for Schalke 04; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 55%. Careful: there is little recent data on Schalke 04, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Union Berlin
Attack 17th of 18, defence 14th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-4 at Leverkusen 2026-09-05
- D 3-3 v Ein Frankfurt 2026-08-29
- W 4-0 v Augsburg 2026-05-16
- W 3-1 at Mainz 2026-05-10
- D 2-2 v FC Koln 2026-05-02
Schalke 04
Attack 12th of 18, defence 4th of 18 in the league.
- D 0-0 v Bayern Munich 2026-09-05
- L 0-3 at Augsburg 2026-08-30
From 630 league matches since 2024-08-23, recent games weighted more.