Burgos vs Ceuta prediction
Spain Segunda · Friday 11 September 2026, 20:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Burgos to win as the most likely result (58%). It gives Burgos 58% at home, a draw 25% and Ceuta 17%, so its call is 1: Burgos to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 61% / 24% / 15%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.5 for Burgos and 0.7 for Ceuta; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 61%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Burgos
Attack 17th of 22, defence 1st of 22 in the league.
- D 0-0 at Oviedo 2026-09-06
- D 2-2 v Sociedad B 2026-08-31
- L 0-1 at Sp Gijon 2026-08-23
- W 3-2 v Cordoba 2026-08-16
- W 1-0 v Andorra 2026-05-31
Ceuta
Attack 15th of 22, defence 22nd of 22 in the league.
- L 0-2 v Celta B 2026-09-05
- L 0-3 at Mallorca 2026-08-30
- L 0-2 v Las Palmas 2026-08-22
- L 1-5 at Andorra 2026-08-15
- W 1-0 v Albacete 2026-05-30
From 968 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.