AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Friday 11 September 2026, 20:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates AZ Alkmaar to win as the most likely result (74%). It gives AZ Alkmaar 74% at home, a draw 17% and Willem II 9%, so its call is 1: AZ Alkmaar to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 86% / 9% / 5%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.5 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.8 for Willem II; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 65%. Careful: there is little recent data on Willem II, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
AZ Alkmaar
Attack 5th of 18, defence 4th of 18 in the league.
- W 3-2 at Heerenveen 2026-09-06
- W 5-2 v Go Ahead Eagles 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 at For Sittard 2026-08-22
- W 4-1 at Utrecht 2026-08-15
- W 2-0 v Den Haag 2026-08-08
Willem II
Attack 18th of 18, defence 16th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-3 v Excelsior 2026-09-05
- D 2-2 v Heerenveen 2026-08-30
- L 1-4 v Nijmegen 2026-08-15
- L 1-4 at Go Ahead Eagles 2026-08-08
- D 1-1 at NAC Breda 2025-05-18
From 656 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.