Moreirense vs Benfica prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Wednesday 9 September 2026, 21:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Benfica to win as the most likely result (74%). It gives Moreirense 10% at home, a draw 16% and Benfica 74%, so its call is 2: Benfica to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 4% / 9% / 88%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 0.8 for Moreirense and 2.4 for Benfica; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 61%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Moreirense
Attack 12th of 18, defence 10th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Porto 2026-09-04
- W 1-0 at Casa Pia 2026-08-30
- L 0-4 at Arouca 2026-08-16
- D 2-2 v Sp Braga 2026-08-09
- D 0-0 v AVS 2026-05-16
Benfica
Attack 2nd of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
- W 3-0 at Maritimo 2026-09-05
- W 2-1 v Estoril 2026-08-31
- W 7-0 at Casa Pia 2026-08-17
- D 2-2 v Academico Viseu 2026-08-09
- W 3-1 at Estoril 2026-05-16
From 654 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.