Estoril vs Arouca prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Monday 7 September 2026, 21:15 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Estoril to win as the most likely result (47%). It gives Estoril 47% at home, a draw 21% and Arouca 32%, so its call is 1: Estoril to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 39% / 27% / 34%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.9 for Estoril and 1.5 for Arouca; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 67%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Estoril
Attack 5th of 18, defence 17th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Benfica 2026-08-31
- L 0-2 v Rio Ave 2026-08-22
- L 0-2 at Nacional 2026-08-16
- D 1-1 v Famalicao 2026-08-07
- L 1-3 v Benfica 2026-05-16
Arouca
Attack 6th of 18, defence 14th of 18 in the league.
- W 2-1 v Maritimo 2026-08-29
- L 0-2 at Porto 2026-08-23
- W 4-0 v Moreirense 2026-08-16
- W 1-0 at Guimaraes 2026-08-08
- W 3-1 v Tondela 2026-05-16
From 653 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.