Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Sunday 6 September 2026, 14:30 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates AZ Alkmaar to win as the most likely result (42%). It gives Heerenveen 32% at home, a draw 26% and AZ Alkmaar 42%, so its call is 2: AZ Alkmaar to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 25% / 23% / 53%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Heerenveen and 1.6 for AZ Alkmaar; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 57%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Heerenveen
Attack 9th of 18, defence 10th of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 at Willem II 2026-08-30
- L 0-2 v Zwolle 2026-08-22
- D 2-2 at Ajax 2026-08-16
- W 1-0 v Twente 2026-08-09
- D 0-0 v Ajax 2026-05-17
AZ Alkmaar
Attack 5th of 18, defence 4th of 18 in the league.
- W 5-2 v Go Ahead Eagles 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 at For Sittard 2026-08-22
- W 4-1 at Utrecht 2026-08-15
- W 2-0 v Den Haag 2026-08-08
- D 3-3 v NAC Breda 2026-05-17
From 649 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Netherlands Eredivisie games on Sun 6 Sep
- Groningen vs Twente · FT 2–2
- Telstar vs Cambuur · FT 2–2
- Den Haag vs For Sittard · FT 2–3