Hamburg vs Mainz prediction
Germany Bundesliga · Sunday 6 September 2026, 15:30 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Mainz to win as the most likely result (37%). It gives Hamburg 33% at home, a draw 30% and Mainz 37%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 33% / 27% / 40%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.1 for Hamburg and 1.2 for Mainz; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 59%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Hamburg
Attack 18th of 18, defence 10th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-2 at Dortmund 2026-08-29
- D 1-1 at Leverkusen 2026-05-16
- W 3-2 v Freiburg 2026-05-10
- W 2-1 at Ein Frankfurt 2026-05-02
- L 1-2 v Hoffenheim 2026-04-25
Mainz
Attack 14th of 18, defence 6th of 18 in the league.
- D 0-0 v Paderborn 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 at Heidenheim 2026-05-16
- L 1-3 v Union Berlin 2026-05-10
- W 2-1 at St Pauli 2026-05-03
- L 3-4 v Bayern Munich 2026-04-25
From 628 league matches since 2024-08-23, recent games weighted more.
More Germany Bundesliga games on Sun 6 Sep
- Ein Frankfurt vs Augsburg · FT 1–4