Roma vs Atalanta prediction
Italy Serie A · Saturday 5 September 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Roma to win as the most likely result (44%). It gives Roma 44% at home, a draw 28% and Atalanta 28%, so its call is 1: Roma to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 58% / 24% / 18%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.3 for Roma and 1.0 for Atalanta; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 59%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Roma
Attack 2nd of 20, defence 1st of 20 in the league.
- W 4-0 at Lecce 2026-08-31
- W 4-0 v Fiorentina 2026-08-24
- W 2-0 at Verona 2026-05-24
- W 2-0 v Lazio 2026-05-17
- W 3-2 at Parma 2026-05-10
Atalanta
Attack 4th of 20, defence 4th of 20 in the league.
- W 1-0 v Bologna 2026-08-31
- W 2-1 v Sassuolo 2026-08-23
- D 1-1 at Fiorentina 2026-05-22
- L 0-1 v Bologna 2026-05-17
- W 3-2 at Milan 2026-05-10
From 781 league matches since 2024-08-17, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie A games on Sat 5 Sep
- Fiorentina vs Torino · FT 1–2
- Inter vs Napoli · FT 3–2