Livingston vs Stenhousemuir prediction
Scotland Championship · Friday 4 September 2026, 20:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Livingston to win as the most likely result (45%). It gives Livingston 45% at home, a draw 33% and Stenhousemuir 22%, so its call is 1: Livingston to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 68% / 19% / 13%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Livingston and 0.9 for Stenhousemuir; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 61%. Careful: there is little recent data on Livingston, Stenhousemuir, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Livingston
Attack 3rd of 10, defence 1st of 10 in the league.
- L 0-1 at Arbroath 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 v Dunfermline 2026-08-22
- L 0-2 at Partick 2026-08-07
- W 2-0 v Queens Park 2026-08-01
- L 0-1 v Partick 2025-05-02
Stenhousemuir
Attack 1st of 10, defence 5th of 10 in the league.
- W 3-1 v Inverness C 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 at Queens Park 2026-08-22
- W 2-0 v Morton 2026-08-08
- D 1-1 at Raith Rvs 2026-08-01
From 380 league matches since 2024-08-02, recent games weighted more.