Las Palmas vs Leganes prediction
Spain Segunda · Friday 4 September 2026, 20:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Las Palmas to win as the most likely result (53%). It gives Las Palmas 53% at home, a draw 27% and Leganes 20%, so its call is 1: Las Palmas to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 37% / 29% / 34%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Las Palmas and 0.7 for Leganes; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 64%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Las Palmas
Attack 5th of 22, defence 5th of 22 in the league.
- L 2-5 at Girona 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 at Ceuta 2026-08-22
- W 2-1 v Albacete 2026-08-16
- W 2-1 at La Coruna 2026-05-31
- D 1-1 v Zaragoza 2026-05-24
Leganes
Attack 19th of 22, defence 6th of 22 in the league.
- W 1-0 v Eldense 2026-08-29
- W 1-0 at Oviedo 2026-08-22
- D 1-1 at Girona 2026-08-16
- W 1-0 v Mirandes 2026-05-31
- L 0-3 at Cadiz 2026-05-24
From 957 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.