Bielefeld vs St Pauli prediction
Germany 2. Bundesliga · Friday 4 September 2026, 18:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Bielefeld to win as the most likely result (49%). It gives Bielefeld 49% at home, a draw 24% and St Pauli 27%, so its call is 1: Bielefeld to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 41% / 26% / 33%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bielefeld and 1.3 for St Pauli; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 60%. Careful: there is little recent data on St Pauli, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Bielefeld
Attack 8th of 18, defence 9th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-4 at Nurnberg 2026-08-29
- W 3-0 v Cottbus 2026-08-16
- L 1-2 at Karlsruhe 2026-08-08
- W 6-1 v Hertha 2026-05-17
- L 0-2 at Kaiserslautern 2026-05-08
St Pauli
Attack 14th of 18, defence 10th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 v Kaiserslautern 2026-08-30
- D 2-2 at Holstein Kiel 2026-08-14
- D 1-1 v Greuther Furth 2026-08-09
From 639 league matches since 2024-08-02, recent games weighted more.
More Germany 2. Bundesliga games on Fri 4 Sep
- Hannover vs Karlsruhe · FT 2–2