Toulouse vs Lille prediction
France Ligue 1 · Thursday 3 September 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Lille to win as the most likely result (41%). It gives Toulouse 30% at home, a draw 30% and Lille 41%, so its call is 2: Lille to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 25% / 27% / 48%, a call of 2. Expected goals are 1.1 for Toulouse and 1.3 for Lille; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 59%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Toulouse
Attack 13th of 18, defence 8th of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 at Brest 2026-08-29
- L 0-2 v Lyon 2026-08-22
- D 0-0 at Nantes 2026-05-17
- W 2-1 v Lyon 2026-05-10
- W 2-1 at Strasbourg 2026-05-03
Lille
Attack 8th of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 v Paris SG 2026-08-28
- W 2-0 at Angers 2026-08-23
- L 0-2 v Auxerre 2026-05-17
- W 1-0 at Monaco 2026-05-10
- D 1-1 v Le Havre 2026-05-03
From 630 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.