Sociedad vs Celta prediction
Spain La Liga · Thursday 3 September 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Sociedad to win as the most likely result (44%). It gives Sociedad 44% at home, a draw 24% and Celta 32%, so its call is 1: Sociedad to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 55% / 25% / 20%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sociedad and 1.3 for Celta; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 56%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Sociedad
Attack 7th of 20, defence 15th of 20 in the league.
- W 2-1 v Espanol 2026-08-29
- L 1-4 at Real Madrid 2026-08-26
- L 0-1 at Betis 2026-08-21
- D 1-1 at Espanol 2026-05-23
- L 3-4 v Valencia 2026-05-17
Celta
Attack 6th of 20, defence 11th of 20 in the league.
- L 0-2 v Ath Bilbao 2026-08-30
- L 1-2 v Osasuna 2026-08-27
- D 0-0 at Valencia 2026-08-22
- W 1-0 v Sevilla 2026-05-23
- D 1-1 at Ath Bilbao 2026-05-17
From 790 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.