Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction
England Premier League · Monday 31 August 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Arsenal to win as the most likely result (53%). It gives Aston Villa 19% at home, a draw 27% and Arsenal 53%, so its call is 2: Arsenal to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 13% / 20% / 66%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 0.9 for Aston Villa and 1.6 for Arsenal; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 55%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Aston Villa
Attack 10th of 20, defence 14th of 20 in the league.
- L 0-4 at Brighton 2026-08-23
- W 2-1 at Man City 2026-05-24
- W 4-2 v Liverpool 2026-05-15
- D 2-2 at Burnley 2026-05-10
- L 1-2 v Tottenham 2026-05-03
Arsenal
Attack 3rd of 20, defence 1st of 20 in the league.
- W 3-0 v Coventry 2026-08-21
- W 2-1 at Crystal Palace 2026-05-24
- W 1-0 v Burnley 2026-05-18
- W 1-0 at West Ham 2026-05-10
- W 3-0 v Fulham 2026-05-02
From 779 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.