Arouca vs Maritimo prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Arouca to win as the most likely result (51%). It gives Arouca 51% at home, a draw 22% and Maritimo 27%, so its call is 1: Arouca to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 46% / 28% / 26%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.8 for Arouca and 1.2 for Maritimo; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 58%. Careful: there is little recent data on Maritimo, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Arouca
Attack 6th of 18, defence 15th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-2 at Porto 2026-08-23
- W 4-0 v Moreirense 2026-08-16
- W 1-0 at Guimaraes 2026-08-08
- W 3-1 v Tondela 2026-05-16
- W 3-1 at Gil Vicente 2026-05-11
Maritimo
Attack 10th of 18, defence 12th of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 v Academico Viseu 2026-08-22
- W 2-1 at Famalicao 2026-08-16
- W 1-0 v Casa Pia 2026-08-08
From 637 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sat 29 Aug
- Alverca vs Santa Clara · FT 1–1
- Academico Viseu vs Porto · FT 0–3