Rio Ave vs Sp Lisbon prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Friday 28 August 2026, 21:15 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Sp Lisbon to win as the most likely result (78%). It gives Rio Ave 9% at home, a draw 14% and Sp Lisbon 78%, so its call is 2: Sp Lisbon to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 10% / 16% / 74%, a call of 2. Expected goals are 0.8 for Rio Ave and 2.7 for Sp Lisbon; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 67%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Rio Ave
Attack 15th of 18, defence 14th of 18 in the league.
- W 2-0 at Estoril 2026-08-22
- L 0-2 v Porto 2026-08-15
- L 0-1 at Gil Vicente 2026-08-09
- D 1-1 at Casa Pia 2026-05-16
- L 1-4 v Sp Lisbon 2026-05-11
Sp Lisbon
Attack 1st of 18, defence 3rd of 18 in the league.
- W 3-1 v Alverca 2026-08-22
- W 3-2 v Guimaraes 2026-08-14
- D 2-2 at Estrela 2026-08-08
- W 3-0 v Gil Vicente 2026-05-16
- W 4-1 at Rio Ave 2026-05-11
From 636 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.