Lille vs Paris SG prediction
France Ligue 1 · Friday 28 August 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Paris SG to win as the most likely result (45%). It gives Lille 28% at home, a draw 28% and Paris SG 45%, so its call is 2: Paris SG to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 20% / 24% / 56%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.1 for Lille and 1.5 for Paris SG; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 52%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Lille
Attack 8th of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
- W 2-0 at Angers 2026-08-23
- L 0-2 v Auxerre 2026-05-17
- W 1-0 at Monaco 2026-05-10
- D 1-1 v Le Havre 2026-05-03
- W 1-0 at Paris FC 2026-04-26
Paris SG
Attack 1st of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 at Rennes 2026-08-23
- L 1-2 at Paris FC 2026-05-17
- W 2-0 at Lens 2026-05-13
- W 1-0 v Brest 2026-05-10
- D 2-2 v Lorient 2026-05-02
From 621 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.