West Brom vs Burnley prediction
England Championship · Sunday 23 August 2026, 13:00 WAT
- Model called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Burnley to win as the most likely result (46%). It gives West Brom 22% at home, a draw 32% and Burnley 46%, so its call is 2: Burnley to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 38% / 28% / 33%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 0.8 for West Brom and 1.2 for Burnley; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 69%. Careful: there is little recent data on Burnley, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
West Brom
Attack 17th of 24, defence 5th of 24 in the league.
- W 2-1 at Norwich 2026-08-15
- L 1-2 at Sheffield Weds 2026-05-02
- D 0-0 v Ipswich 2026-04-25
- W 3-0 v Watford 2026-04-21
- W 2-0 at Preston 2026-04-18
Burnley
Attack 5th of 24, defence 1st of 24 in the league.
- D 2-2 v West Ham 2026-08-16
- W 3-1 v Millwall 2025-05-03
- W 5-0 at QPR 2025-04-26
- W 2-1 v Sheffield United 2025-04-21
- W 2-1 at Watford 2025-04-18
From 1127 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.