Nantes vs Rodez prediction
France Ligue 2 · Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Rodez to win as the most likely result (38%). It gives Nantes 37% at home, a draw 26% and Rodez 38%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 53% / 25% / 22%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nantes and 1.3 for Rodez; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 50%. Careful: there is little recent data on Nantes, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Nantes
Attack 10th of 18, defence 10th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Laval 2026-08-14
- L 0-1 v Red Star 2026-08-08
Rodez
Attack 5th of 18, defence 11th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-2 at Annecy 2026-08-14
- W 3-1 v Laval 2026-08-08
- W 2-1 at Annecy 2026-05-09
- W 2-1 v St Etienne 2026-05-02
- D 0-0 at Laval 2026-04-24
From 634 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 2 games on Sat 22 Aug
- Metz vs Laval · FT 1–1
- St Etienne vs Grenoble · FT 4–0