Vallecano vs Alaves prediction
Spain La Liga · Thursday 20 August 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Vallecano to win as the most likely result (47%). It gives Vallecano 47% at home, a draw 28% and Alaves 25%, so its call is 1: Vallecano to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 39% / 30% / 30%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vallecano and 0.9 for Alaves; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 63%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Vallecano
Attack 11th of 12, defence 3rd of 12 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Sevilla 2026-08-15
- W 2-1 at Alaves 2026-05-23
- W 2-0 v Villarreal 2026-05-17
- D 1-1 at Valencia 2026-05-14
- D 1-1 v Girona 2026-05-11
Alaves
Attack 7th of 12, defence 8th of 12 in the league.
- W 3-0 v Getafe 2026-08-15
- L 1-2 v Vallecano 2026-05-23
- W 1-0 at Oviedo 2026-05-17
- W 1-0 v Barcelona 2026-05-13
- D 1-1 at Elche 2026-05-09
From 766 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.