Casa Pia vs Benfica prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Monday 17 August 2026, 21:15 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Benfica to win as the most likely result (73%). It gives Casa Pia 10% at home, a draw 17% and Benfica 73%, so its call is 2: Benfica to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 5% / 11% / 84%, a call of 2. Expected goals are 0.7 for Casa Pia and 2.2 for Benfica; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 56%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Casa Pia
Attack 18th of 18, defence 11th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-1 at Maritimo 2026-08-08
- D 1-1 v Rio Ave 2026-05-16
- W 1-0 at Guimaraes 2026-05-11
- L 0-1 v Tondela 2026-05-03
- L 1-2 at Gil Vicente 2026-04-27
Benfica
Attack 2nd of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 v Academico Viseu 2026-08-09
- W 3-1 at Estoril 2026-05-16
- D 2-2 v Sp Braga 2026-05-11
- D 2-2 at Famalicao 2026-05-02
- W 4-1 v Moreirense 2026-04-25
From 628 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.