Lommel SK vs Charleroi prediction
Belgium Pro League · Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:15 WAT
- Model called X2 ✓ (draw or away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Charleroi to win as the most likely result (41%). It gives Lommel SK 28% at home, a draw 31% and Charleroi 41%, so its call is X2: Charleroi to win or draw. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 22% / 24% / 54%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lommel SK and 1.2 for Charleroi; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 61%. Careful: there is little recent data on Lommel SK, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Lommel SK
Attack 14th of 18, defence 11th of 18 in the league.
- D 1-1 at St Truiden 2026-08-08
Charleroi
Attack 9th of 18, defence 5th of 18 in the league.
- W 3-1 v Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2026-08-09
- W 2-0 at Standard 2026-05-23
- D 1-1 v Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2026-05-19
- L 0-1 v Westerlo 2026-05-16
- W 1-0 at Antwerp 2026-05-10
From 637 league matches since 2024-07-26, recent games weighted more.
More Belgium Pro League games on Sun 16 Aug
- Beveren vs Anderlecht · FT 1–0
- RAAL La Louviere vs Gent · FT 1–2
- Mechelen vs Standard · FT 3–3