Alverca vs Estrela prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Saturday 15 August 2026, 16:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Alverca to win as the most likely result (44%). It gives Alverca 44% at home, a draw 27% and Estrela 29%, so its call is 1: Alverca to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 45% / 28% / 26%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.3 for Alverca and 1.0 for Estrela; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 59%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Alverca
Attack 16th of 18, defence 11th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-2 at Porto 2026-08-09
- L 0-1 at Famalicao 2026-05-16
- D 1-1 v Estoril 2026-05-10
- L 0-1 at Porto 2026-05-02
- W 2-1 v Arouca 2026-04-24
Estrela
Attack 14th of 18, defence 15th of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 v Sp Lisbon 2026-08-08
- D 2-2 at Sp Braga 2026-05-16
- D 0-0 v Famalicao 2026-05-11
- L 2-3 at Moreirense 2026-05-02
- L 1-2 v Porto 2026-04-26
From 622 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sat 15 Aug
- Academico Viseu vs Santa Clara · FT 0–1
- Rio Ave vs Porto · FT 0–2