Sp Lisbon vs Guimaraes prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Friday 14 August 2026, 21:15 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Sp Lisbon to win as the most likely result (82%). It gives Sp Lisbon 82% at home, a draw 12% and Guimaraes 6%, so its call is 1: Sp Lisbon to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 70% / 18% / 12%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.9 for Sp Lisbon and 0.7 for Guimaraes; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 69%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Sp Lisbon
Attack 1st of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 at Estrela 2026-08-08
- W 3-0 v Gil Vicente 2026-05-16
- W 4-1 at Rio Ave 2026-05-11
- W 5-1 v Guimaraes 2026-05-04
- D 2-2 v Tondela 2026-04-29
Guimaraes
Attack 9th of 18, defence 8th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-1 v Arouca 2026-08-08
- L 0-2 at Nacional 2026-05-16
- L 0-1 v Casa Pia 2026-05-11
- L 1-5 at Sp Lisbon 2026-05-04
- W 2-0 v Rio Ave 2026-04-25
From 621 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.