Troyes vs Le Mans prediction
France Ligue 1 · Saturday 31 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Le Mans to win as the most likely result (56%). It gives Troyes 20% at home, a draw 25% and Le Mans 56%, so its call is 2: Le Mans to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 41% / 27% / 32%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.0 for Troyes and 1.8 for Le Mans; the single most likely score is 1-1. Careful: there is little recent data on Troyes, Le Mans, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Troyes
Attack 18th of 18, defence 18th of 18 in the league.
- D 0-0 at Toulouse 2026-10-25
- L 1-3 v Lens 2026-10-17
- L 0-2 v Marseille 2026-10-11
- L 0-2 at Angers 2026-09-19
- L 0-2 at Lille 2026-09-13
Le Mans
Attack 10th of 18, defence 17th of 18 in the league.
- D 1-1 at Auxerre 2026-10-25
- L 0-3 v Toulouse 2026-10-16
- L 1-3 at Paris SG 2026-10-10
- W 2-1 v Lorient 2026-09-19
- D 2-2 v Lens 2026-09-13
From 687 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.