Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Saturday 31 October 2026, 21:00 WAT
Full timeAjax 1–0 AZ AlkmaarResult 1
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
AjaxDrawAZ Alkmaar
Model 1 ✓
52%25%23%
Market 1 ✓
59%20%21%
Brit Predictor's model rates Ajax to win as the most likely result (52%). It gives Ajax 52% at home, a draw 25% and AZ Alkmaar 23%, so its call is 1: Ajax to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 59% / 20% / 21%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ajax and 1.2 for AZ Alkmaar; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Most likely score1-1
Over 2.5 goals57%
Both teams score59%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Ajax
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
WWDDW
- W 2-1 at Sparta Rotterdam 2026-10-25
- W 5-2 at Groningen 2026-10-18
- D 1-1 v Nijmegen 2026-10-10
- D 2-2 v Excelsior 2026-09-19
- W 5-1 v Willem II 2026-09-15
AZ Alkmaar
Attack 8th of 18, defence 4th of 18 in the league.
LDLWD
- L 0-2 v Twente 2026-10-25
- D 2-2 at Cambuur 2026-10-18
- L 0-2 at Feyenoord 2026-10-10
- W 1-0 v Telstar 2026-09-20
- D 1-1 v Willem II 2026-09-11
From 702 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Netherlands Eredivisie games on Sat 31 Oct
- Feyenoord vs For Sittard · FT 1–1
- Heerenveen vs Nijmegen · FT 1–0
- PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II · FT 7–0
- Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles · FT 4–0