Elversberg vs Mainz prediction
Germany Bundesliga · Friday 30 October 2026, 20:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Elversberg to win as the most likely result (45%). It gives Elversberg 45% at home, a draw 21% and Mainz 34%, so its call is 1: Elversberg to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 30% / 24% / 46%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.1 for Elversberg and 1.8 for Mainz; the single most likely score is 2-1. Careful: there is little recent data on Elversberg, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Elversberg
Attack 6th of 18, defence 18th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-4 at RB Leipzig 2026-10-24
- W 4-3 v Augsburg 2026-10-17
- L 0-1 at Union Berlin 2026-10-10
- D 0-0 at Schalke 04 2026-09-20
- L 1-2 v Bayern Munich 2026-09-13
Mainz
Attack 10th of 18, defence 9th of 18 in the league.
- L 2-3 v Werder Bremen 2026-10-24
- W 1-0 at Schalke 04 2026-10-17
- L 3-4 v Leverkusen 2026-10-10
- W 4-3 at M'gladbach 2026-09-19
- L 1-3 v Ein Frankfurt 2026-09-12
From 675 league matches since 2024-08-23, recent games weighted more.