Paris SG vs Lyon prediction
France Ligue 1 · Monday 26 October 2026, 20:30 WAT
Full timeParis SG 2–0 LyonResult 1
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Paris SGDrawLyon
Model 1 ✓
60%22%18%
Market 1 ✓
74%15%11%
Brit Predictor's model rates Paris SG to win as the most likely result (60%). It gives Paris SG 60% at home, a draw 22% and Lyon 18%, so its call is 1: Paris SG to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 74% / 15% / 11%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.0 for Paris SG and 1.0 for Lyon; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Most likely score1-1
Over 2.5 goals59%
Both teams score57%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Paris SG
Attack 1st of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
WWWWL
- W 3-1 at Strasbourg 2026-10-17
- W 3-1 v Le Mans 2026-10-10
- W 2-1 at Marseille 2026-09-20
- W 1-0 at Brest 2026-09-13
- L 1-2 v Monaco 2026-09-04
Lyon
Attack 6th of 18, defence 3rd of 18 in the league.
WLWDW
- W 2-1 v Nice 2026-10-18
- L 1-2 at Lens 2026-10-09
- W 4-0 v Rennes 2026-09-19
- D 0-0 at Paris FC 2026-09-12
- W 3-1 v Auxerre 2026-09-04
From 683 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.