Guimaraes vs Maritimo prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Friday 23 October 2026, 21:45 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Guimaraes to win as the most likely result (45%). It gives Guimaraes 45% at home, a draw 25% and Maritimo 30%, so its call is 1: Guimaraes to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 61% / 23% / 16%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.5 for Guimaraes and 1.1 for Maritimo; the single most likely score is 1-1. Careful: there is little recent data on Maritimo, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Guimaraes
Attack 13th of 18, defence 9th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-2 at Benfica 2026-10-11
- D 1-1 v Moreirense 2026-09-20
- L 1-2 at Academico Viseu 2026-09-12
- D 0-0 v Casa Pia 2026-09-06
- L 0-1 at Sp Braga 2026-08-31
Maritimo
Attack 8th of 18, defence 17th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 v Porto 2026-10-10
- D 1-1 at Gil Vicente 2026-09-19
- L 1-3 at Moreirense 2026-09-14
- L 0-3 v Benfica 2026-09-05
- L 1-2 at Arouca 2026-08-29
From 684 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.