Bolton vs Middlesbrough prediction
England Championship · Friday 23 October 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Middlesbrough to win as the most likely result (42%). It gives Bolton 33% at home, a draw 25% and Middlesbrough 42%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 16% / 19% / 65%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bolton and 1.6 for Middlesbrough; the single most likely score is 1-1. Careful: there is little recent data on Bolton, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Bolton
Attack 10th of 24, defence 19th of 24 in the league.
- D 0-0 at Southampton 2026-10-17
- W 3-1 at Wolves 2026-10-13
- L 1-2 v Stoke 2026-10-10
- W 4-3 at Norwich 2026-09-20
- W 1-0 v Cardiff 2026-09-12
Middlesbrough
Attack 4th of 24, defence 8th of 24 in the league.
- D 2-2 v Cardiff 2026-10-17
- W 3-2 at Stoke 2026-10-13
- W 1-0 v Wolves 2026-10-10
- D 2-2 at Birmingham 2026-09-19
- D 2-2 v Millwall 2026-09-15
From 1236 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.