Alaves vs Malaga prediction
Spain La Liga · Friday 23 October 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Alaves to win as the most likely result (69%). It gives Alaves 69% at home, a draw 21% and Malaga 10%, so its call is 1: Alaves to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 61% / 24% / 15%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.9 for Alaves and 0.6 for Malaga; the single most likely score is 1-0. Careful: there is little recent data on Malaga, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Alaves
Attack 14th of 20, defence 10th of 20 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Celta 2026-10-18
- L 1-2 v Ath Madrid 2026-10-10
- D 0-0 at Ath Bilbao 2026-09-19
- L 0-1 v Valencia 2026-09-15
- L 1-2 at Santander 2026-09-12
Malaga
Attack 20th of 20, defence 19th of 20 in the league.
- L 2-5 v Sociedad 2026-10-18
- D 1-1 v Espanol 2026-10-09
- L 0-1 at Getafe 2026-09-20
- L 1-3 v Villarreal 2026-09-17
- D 1-1 at Celta 2026-09-13
From 849 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.