Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction
France Ligue 1 · Friday 16 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Le Mans to win as the most likely result (47%). It gives Le Mans 47% at home, a draw 23% and Toulouse 30%, so its call is 1: Le Mans to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 29% / 27% / 44%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.9 for Le Mans and 1.5 for Toulouse; the single most likely score is 1-1. Careful: there is little recent data on Le Mans, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Le Mans
Attack 4th of 18, defence 17th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-3 at Paris SG 2026-10-10
- W 2-1 v Lorient 2026-09-19
- D 2-2 v Lens 2026-09-13
- D 1-1 at Nice 2026-09-05
- L 2-3 at Rennes 2026-08-30
Toulouse
Attack 11th of 18, defence 9th of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 at Monaco 2026-10-10
- W 3-2 v Le Havre 2026-09-19
- D 2-2 at Lorient 2026-09-12
- L 0-1 v Lille 2026-09-03
- D 2-2 at Brest 2026-08-29
From 666 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.