Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Friday 16 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Heerenveen to win as the most likely result (45%). It gives Heerenveen 45% at home, a draw 26% and Excelsior 29%, so its call is 1: Heerenveen to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 61% / 20% / 18%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.7 for Heerenveen and 1.3 for Excelsior; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Heerenveen
Attack 11th of 18, defence 7th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-2 at PSV Eindhoven 2026-10-09
- W 4-0 at Sparta Rotterdam 2026-09-19
- D 0-0 v Telstar 2026-09-13
- L 2-3 v AZ Alkmaar 2026-09-06
- D 2-2 at Willem II 2026-08-30
Excelsior
Attack 10th of 18, defence 10th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-5 v Groningen 2026-10-11
- D 2-2 at Ajax 2026-09-19
- L 1-2 v Utrecht 2026-09-13
- D 2-2 at Nijmegen 2026-09-08
- W 3-0 at Willem II 2026-09-05
From 684 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.