Dijon vs Metz prediction
France Ligue 2 · Monday 12 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Metz to win as the most likely result (49%). It gives Dijon 28% at home, a draw 24% and Metz 49%, so its call is 2: Metz to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 35% / 28% / 38%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dijon and 1.8 for Metz; the single most likely score is 1-1. Careful: there is little recent data on Dijon, Metz, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Dijon
Attack 5th of 18, defence 15th of 18 in the league.
- W 2-1 at Annecy 2026-09-18
- W 3-2 v Laval 2026-09-11
- D 1-1 at Boulogne 2026-09-04
- L 2-3 v St Etienne 2026-08-31
- D 1-1 at Clermont 2026-08-21
Metz
Attack 2nd of 18, defence 3rd of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 v St Etienne 2026-09-19
- L 0-1 at Red Star 2026-09-14
- W 4-1 v Rodez 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 at Annecy 2026-08-29
- D 1-1 v Laval 2026-08-22
From 682 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.