Almeria vs Burgos prediction
Spain Segunda · Saturday 3 October 2026, 16:15 WAT
Full timeAlmeria 2–1 BurgosResult 1
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
AlmeriaDrawBurgos
Model 1 ✓
46%27%27%
Market 1 ✓
64%22%14%
Brit Predictor's model rates Almeria to win as the most likely result (46%). It gives Almeria 46% at home, a draw 27% and Burgos 27%, so its call is 1: Almeria to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 64% / 22% / 14%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Almeria and 1.0 for Burgos; the single most likely score is 1-0.
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Most likely score1-0
Over 2.5 goals44%
Both teams score48%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Almeria
Attack 2nd of 22, defence 13th of 22 in the league.
WWWWL
- W 1-0 at Mallorca 2026-09-27
- W 2-0 v Celta B 2026-09-20
- W 2-0 at Cordoba 2026-09-12
- W 3-2 v Cadiz 2026-09-06
- L 0-1 at Sabadell 2026-08-29
Burgos
Attack 17th of 22, defence 3rd of 22 in the league.
WWWDD
- W 1-0 v Eldense 2026-09-27
- W 2-1 at Las Palmas 2026-09-20
- W 3-1 v Ceuta 2026-09-11
- D 0-0 at Oviedo 2026-09-06
- D 2-2 v Sociedad B 2026-08-31
From 1002 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain Segunda games on Sat 3 Oct
- Albacete vs Eibar · FT 1–3
- Cadiz vs Leganes · FT 4–0