Ayr vs Stenhousemuir prediction
Scotland Championship · Friday 25 September 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Stenhousemuir to win as the most likely result (66%). It gives Ayr 5% at home, a draw 28% and Stenhousemuir 66%, so its call is 2: Stenhousemuir to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 45% / 28% / 27%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 0.3 for Ayr and 1.5 for Stenhousemuir; the single most likely score is 0-1. Careful: there is little recent data on Stenhousemuir, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Ayr
Attack 6th of 10, defence 8th of 10 in the league.
- W 2-0 at Queens Park 2026-09-18
- L 1-3 v Inverness C 2026-09-12
- L 0-1 at Partick 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 v Morton 2026-08-29
- L 0-2 at Raith Rvs 2026-08-22
Stenhousemuir
Attack 1st of 10, defence 1st of 10 in the league.
- W 1-0 v Arbroath 2026-09-19
- W 1-0 v Partick 2026-09-15
- W 1-0 at Livingston 2026-09-04
- W 3-1 v Inverness C 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 at Queens Park 2026-08-22
From 395 league matches since 2024-08-02, recent games weighted more.
More Scotland Championship games on Fri 25 Sep
- Raith Rvs vs Livingston · FT 0–2
- Inverness C vs Morton · FT 2–0
- Arbroath vs Queens Park · FT 2–1